Corresponding author: Tom Groot ( t.groot@vu.nl ) Academic editor: Chris D. Knoops
© 2021 Jurriaan Kooij, Tom Groot.
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Citation:
Kooij J, Groot T (2021) Towards a comprehensive assessment system of local government fiscal health. Maandblad voor Accountancy en Bedrijfseconomie 95(7/8): 233-244. https://doi.org/10.5117/mab.95.67693
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Understanding fiscal health, also commonly referred to as financial condition, is key to sound decision making and the proper functioning of local government. Nonetheless there is no agreed upon way to measure fiscal health. We argue that the use of a conceptual framework is essential in furthering our understanding of measuring and assessing local government fiscal health. In this study we offer a framework and a set of financial accounting indicators visualizing fiscal health on the short and long term, taking into account the existing liabilities and local government obligations towards its constituents. The study draws on the theoretical and empirical analysis of corporate bankruptcy prediction models and local government fiscal distress models. We develop a possible comprehensive set of fiscal health indicators and compare it with existing empirical studies of local government fiscal health.
The model captures current performance in four solvency dimensions (cash, budget, service-level and long term) and allows for predictions of future performance, taking into account risks (predictors of possible future financial stress) and capabilities (opportunities to strengthen future financial health). We tested our model by reviewing 33 empirical studies and found that we could allocate all indicators used to the dimensions of our framework. No empirical study appears to address all dimensions. The selection of performance dimensions is partly driven by the studies’ research objectives.
fiscal health, local government, assessment of financial performance, financial distress, financial oversight
The availability of a complete and coherent framework for measuring fiscal health is key to the sound use of indicators in local decision making processes and supervision of local government finances. It may help improving predictions of future fiscal health, identifying causes of fiscal distress and benchmarking fiscal policies nationally and internationally.
The fiscal health of local government has historically always become an issue in the wake of financial crises such as the defaults in railroad bonds in the 1870s, the Great Depression in the 1930s (
This lack of consensus is problematic as it leaves researchers and practitioners without proper guidance when measuring and assessing local government fiscal health. In this paper we find that more often than not argumentation for the inclusion of individual indicators in frameworks is absent. Furthermore, only few of the empirical local government fiscal health studies provide argumentation for the framework used. Some argue that fiscal stress cannot be measured by one single indicator because of the diversity of local government’s institutional setting, its diverse activities and the multidimensional nature of its financial condition (
In this paper, we try to develop a comprehensive framework of local government fiscal health using insights offered by existing literature. We use the term fiscal health synonymously to financial condition as the ability of a government to meet its financial and service obligations (
This paper is structured as follows. First we discuss the importance of developing a comprehensive framework that is complete and tied into the concept of local government financial condition. Next we introduce our framework that describes the relevant aspects of local government financial condition. Subsequently we present the results of a literature review of 29 empirical studies demonstrating which type of indicators are suitable for measuring the various aspects of our framework. Finally we draw conclusions and make recommendations for further research.
For the development of a conceptual framework, we use two streams of literature: the first stream about corporate bankruptcy prediction models and the second about local government fiscal distress models generally developed and used by financial management institutes and oversight bodies, predominantly from the U.S. Most of the literature is based on empirical studies, because a pure theoretical approach of measuring fiscal health will not be able to capture all complexities of the real-life settings in which municipalities operate.
Corporate bankruptcy prediction models fairly consistently show that accounting measures of profitability (for instance annual profit or net income relative to assets), leverage (for example total liabilities to total assets) and liquidity (like working capital, the ratio of cash and short-term assets to total assets, and cash flow generation from operations measured by EBITDA) are predictors of corporate failure (
A local government’s financial condition or fiscal health can be defined as its ability to meet financial and service obligations (
Both corporate bankruptcy literature and the financial indicators used in US local government oversight indicate that accounting information about liquidity, operating position and debt levels (leverage) are prime indicators of fiscal health. These indicators feature in the generic Financial Trend Monitoring System (FTMS) developed by
Solvency | Description |
---|---|
Cash solvency | Does local government have the ability to generate enough cash in the short term to pay its bills? |
Budget solvency | Does local government generate enough revenues over its normal budgetary period to meet its expenditures and not incur deficits? |
Service-level solvency | Does local government provide services at the level and quality that are required for the health, safety, and welfare of the community and that its citizens desire? |
Long-term solvency | Does local government have the ability in the long run to generate enough revenues to meet its expenditures? |
This breakdown into solvencies, however, does not yet differentiate between current performance by a local government and its prospects. Most oversight bodies are interested in predicting fiscal distress, which means that besides accounting information of current performance also predictive indicators of future financial performance need to be developed. Causal factors of local government fiscal distress are generally found to be drivers of future income reduction and drivers of future expenditure increase. Income reduction drivers can be tax base erosion and state revenue cuts (
Performance | Risks | Capabilities | |
Cash solvency | Whether current payment obligations can be met. | Exposure to events that may require substantial cash outflows in the (very) short term. | Ability of local government to generate additional cash to meet short term obligations. |
Budget solvency | Whether current budget is balanced. | Exposure to events that may have a nonrecurring negative impact on current budget. | Ability of local government to address a deficit in current budget. |
Service-level solvency | Whether local government services currently meet local demand. | Exposure to events that may negatively impact local demand for services or service delivery. | This dimension measures to what extent local government services exceed local demand. |
Long-term solvency | Whether current long run outlook is balanced. | Exposure to events that may have a recurring negative effect impacting the long run outlook. | Ability of local government to address long run structural negative trends. |
As already indicated, the listing of performance dimensions, risks and capabilities does not convey the relations between these elements and it does not yet provide a coherent framework in which current and future performance can be identified. Figure
As a next step, we will now use our framework to map out the indicators used in the empirical local government fiscal distress literature. For this analysis we reviewed 33 studies that have been published in the period 1967–2017. Our analysis serves three purposes: the first goal is to make an inventory of the specific indicators used in the literature to measure each of the 12 dimensions in our model. Our second goal is to see whether our framework is sufficiently complete and comprehensive to capture all the measurement models used in the studies reviewed. And lastly we want to have an impression of the different perspectives the reviewed studies have taken in their approach to predicting fiscal distress.
Using the arguments and clarifications provided in these studies we identify types of indicators that are suitable for specific dimensions in our framework. Because often no arguments are given for the inclusion of specific indicators, the allocation is based on less than the 30 studies reviewed. When no argumentation was available we allocated indicators based on similarity to indicators for which argumentation was available. Additionally we also used argumentation in theoretical studies and handbooks to determine to which dimension an indicator may be best allocated. Furthermore, this allocation is not exclusive as the argumentation for certain indicators shows that these may apply to multiple aspects of local government financial condition simultaneously. Finally we were unable to allocate only a very small number of indicators (7) that were included in empirical studies as dummy variables for specific (geographical) characteristics. In Appendix 1 of this paper we provide an overview of all studies and guidebooks reviewed in relation to the 12 dimensions of our framework.
In our analysis, we were unable to find indicators representing short-term risks impacting short-term cash, budget and service-level solvencies. Most short-term risk factors lead to sudden changes in the environment, like natural disasters, socio-economic disruptions, or shifts in political decision making that have a substantial and non-recurring immediate impact on the local government’s financial position. Most studies do include risk factors, but they are predictors of future fiscal distress and therefore play a role in predicting long-term solvency. Local governments may prepare themselves against the adverse impact of short-term and mostly unidentified risk factors, but they mainly do so by strengthening their cash, budget and service-level solvency capabilities. Reaching higher capability levels means local governments are less susceptible to the immediate financial impact of risk factors.
In the remainder of this chapter we report our findings per solvency dimension and report on each dimension’s performance and capabilities indicators. For the long-term solvency dimension we also identify the long-term risk factors we found in the literature. The list of indicators identified must be viewed as indicative and non-limiting, as the work on the development of performance indicators is extensive and still progressing.
This dimension focuses on the ability of a local government to meet current payment obligations. If this is not the case new sources of cash need to be found or local government will default on its payments.
Various studies (e.g.
Finally, we also found a number of indicators in studies (e.g.
Indicators in empirical studies measuring Cash solvency Performance and Capabilities.
Performance categories | Indicators |
---|---|
Ability to repay current liabilities | ● Current ratio |
● Quick ratio | |
● Current liabilities / revenues | |
● Average collection period | |
Ability to generate a cashflow from operations | ● Liquidity (index) |
● Cash balance | |
● Cash from local taxes | |
Capability categories | |
Free cashflow | ● Cash surplus index |
● Cash coverage ratio | |
● Cash surplus for overheads | |
Creditworthiness | ● Debt service per capita |
● Debt service as % of revenues | |
● Debt per capita | |
● Debt as % of revenues | |
● Debt to assets ratio | |
● Overlapping debt | |
● Credit rating |
Cash capabilities (see the lower panel in Table
The focus of this dimension is on the current budget year’s financial result. Various studies use indicators measuring the operating results of a local government (
Indicators in empirical studies measuring Budget solvency Performance and Capabilities.
Performance categories | Indicators |
---|---|
Budget performance | ● Total revenues – total expenditures |
● Operating result | |
● Charge to expense ratio | |
● Fund deficits or surpluses | |
● Budget performance as a ratio to: | |
○ Residents | |
○ Expenditures | |
○ Budget obligations | |
○ Government funding | |
Short-term Assets and Liabilities | ● Short-term term assets |
● Short-term liabilities | |
● Total liabilities to total assets | |
● Non-current liabilities to total assets | |
● Debt to assets ratio | |
● Net debt | |
Capability categories | |
Reserves | ● Size of general funds |
● General funds as % of revenues | |
● General funds as % of expenditures | |
● Net asset ratio |
Budget solvency capabilities depict the ability of local government to compensate for negative non-recurring events. Typically local governments use reserves or funds to cope with such events (
This dimension focuses on whether local demands for public services are currently met by a local government. Whether this is the case, is difficult to objectively measure (
Indicators in empirical studies measuring Service-level solvency Performance and Capabilities.
Performance categories | Indicators |
---|---|
Socio-economic and demographic characteristics reflecting current demand for services | ● Characteristics of population |
○ Population size | |
○ Population density | |
○ Income | |
○ Education | |
○ Employment | |
○ Age | |
○ Immigrant / Non-immigrant | |
● Characteristics of housing | |
○ Occupied | |
○ Owner occupied | |
○ Age | |
● Socio-economic characteristics | |
○ Industry concentration | |
○ Economic activity | |
○ Building permits | |
○ Crime rate | |
○ Unemployment | |
● Specific service responsibilities | |
○ Fire district | |
○ School district | |
○ Service delivery access | |
Output of services | ● Service-level indicators |
● Current budgetary receivables and capital budgetary receivables divided by current budget payables and capital budgetary payables (all figures nonfinancial) | |
● Quality index | |
Capability categories | |
Public borrowing and public spending in relation to current demand for services | ● Surplus delivery of public services in relation to |
○ Population size and composition | |
○ Socio-economic conditions |
Service-level capabilities can be found in local governments that provide services at a higher level of quality or quantity than required by local demand. Such a surplus in service level solvency represents a capability as it will take longer before the current level of service provision is considered inadequate and allows cutting back on services to alleviate financial pressures. This capability is closely related to the current performance in relation to service level solvency. Hence, the same type of indicators that would be suitable for measuring whether current service provision and demand is balanced, can also be used to measure the existence of a service level surplus (if any). Following this reasoning we included the same indicators for measuring socio-demographic features and indicators measuring service output. Empirical studies try to identify service-level capabilities by comparing service levels in relation to population characteristics using a cross-section of municipalities.
Indicators in this dimension focus on the long-term outlook. One way of doing so is by using indicators that measure trends in cash, revenues or expenditures. Increasing expenditures indicate an increased cost of providing services while decreasing revenues indicate a decrease in the community’s ability to pay for services and the need for finding new sources of revenue. Using a denominator when calculating this type of indicator allows to compensate for other trends such as population growth or decline (
Another way of analyzing the current long-term outlook is by looking at over time changes in the municipal capital structure. A high (or increasing) level of debt relative to assets is considered a negative warning sign (
Finally we found indicators that focus on measuring municipal long-term financial obligations. This includes indicators used to measure the state of capital assets. Assets, such as the local infrastructure, that are not properly maintained will become less useful over time and will become costlier to maintain. Decreasing capital expenditures and maintenance budgets may indicate neglect of capital assets and are considered to be a negative factor in the current long-term outlook (
Indicators in empirical studies measuring Long-term solvency Performance, Risk and Capabilities.
Performance Categories | Indicators |
---|---|
Over time changes in cash position | ● % changes in liquidity |
● % change in cash surplus | |
● % change in average collection period | |
Over time changes in revenues and expenditures | ● % change in intergovernmental revenues |
● % change in (tax) revenues | |
● % change in (operating) expenditures | |
Long-term assets and liabilities | ● Long-term assets |
● Long-term liabilities | |
● Debt service (principal + interest payments on long-term debt) | |
● Debt-to-assets ratio (long-term debt/total assets) | |
● Leverage (debt as a percent of assessed value) | |
Long-term financial obligations | ● Capital maintenance obligations (ratio) |
● Capital expenditure (ratio) | |
● Pension obligations (ratio) | |
● Debt per capita (ratio) | |
Over time changes in service-levels | ● % changes in service-level demands |
○ Population composition | |
○ Education level | |
○ Taxable income | |
● % changes in services offered | |
○ Funds availability | |
○ Borrowing capacity | |
○ Taxation opportunities | |
Risk categories | |
Dependency on sources of income | ● Revenue concentration |
● % of top 10 tax payers of total tax revenues | |
● Intergovernmental grants as % of total revenues | |
● Budgetary payables divided by budgetary receivables except grants | |
Quality of management | ● Budget accuracy |
● Compliance | |
● Effectiveness of Organisational structure | |
● Audit opinion | |
Capability categories | |
Tax capacity | ● Total tax revenues per capita |
● Property taxes | |
● Income taxes | |
● Sales taxes | |
● Size of the tax base | |
● Property values | |
● Residential income | |
● Retail sales | |
● Tax collection ratio | |
Flexibility in local government budget | ● Debt service costs as % of total revenues |
● Administrative costs as % of total revenues | |
● Captial expenditures as % of revenues | |
● Fiscal receivables divided by annual amortization payments (interest and principal) |
This dimension focuses on the exposure to events that may negatively impact the long-term outlook (refer to Table
Also, a local government’s long-term financial position is greatly influenced by the way local management and councils operate, decide and adapt to changes in the local government’s external environment. If they fail, a local government’s financial position may take a turn for the worse (Advisory Commission on Intergovernmental Relations 1973;
Capabilities illuminate the ability to structurally improve the long-term outlook (see Table
The second way a local government may improve its long-term outlook is by cutting back on its expenditures.
We analysed the use of fiscal health indicators in a sample of 33 empirical studies published in the period 1967–2017 (see Table
The use of Fiscal Health performance indicators in a sample of 30 empirical studies.
Sample studies | n | Cash solvency | Budget solvency | Service level solvency | Long-term solvency | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Perform. | Capab. | Perform. | Capab. | Perform. | Capab. | Perform. | Risks | Capab. | ||
Number of indicators used in each dimension | 608 | 32 | 69 | 59 | 16 | 82 | 81 | 73 | 124 | 72 |
Number of studies using the dimension | 33 | 17 | 26 | 25 | 10 | 16 | 16 | 24 | 24 | 25 |
Studies grouped according to research objective *) | ||||||||||
Prediction of fiscal stress | 16 | 0.56 | 0.69 | 0.69 | 0.19 | 0.38 | 0.38 | 0.63 | 0.63 | 0.63 |
Explaining differences in credit and bond ratings | 6 | 0.00 | 0.67 | 0.33 | 0.33 | 0.83 | 0.83 | 0.50 | 1.00 | 0.67 |
Testing alternative fiscal health measurement systems | 5 | 0.60 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.60 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.80 | 1.00 |
Analysis of financial condition of specific cases in local government | 6 | 0.50 | 1.00 | 0.67 | 0.17 | 0.50 | 0.67 | 0.67 | 0.67 | 1.00 |
Total sample | 33 | 0.45 | 0.79 | 0.67 | 0.27 | 0.42 | 0.45 | 0.67 | 0.73 | 0.76 |
Table
Understanding financial condition is key to sound decision making and the proper functioning of local government. Nonetheless, despite a long history of research into local government financial condition, there is no agreed upon way to measure it. This can be observed in the great number of different indicators used in studies since 1967 to measure local government financial condition. These differences can be explained by valid reasons such as limited data availability or the heterogeneity of local government. However, few studies provide arguments for their selection of indicators. Without such argumentation it is hard to interpret the resulting measurements.
Furthermore we argue that in order to assess local government financial condition it is necessary to provide argumentation for the validity of the selection of indicators as a whole. Without a good understanding of the composition of performance dimensions, the overall results may be difficult to interpret. The different measurement choices across studies make it also hard to compare results. In particular it is difficult to determine whether a selection of indicators covers all relevant aspects of local government financial condition. Awareness of any blind spots is not only relevant from a scientific point of view, but is also key to the sound use of indicators in local decision making processes and supervision of local government finance.
A framework that describes at a conceptual level all relevant aspects of financial condition may resolve this issue as it provides guidance in measuring financial condition. Additionally, such a framework serves as a point of reference to discuss and interpret different results from different studies. As few studies provide argumentation for the selection of indicators, even fewer studies use a conceptual framework. In particular discussion tends to focus on the individual components of the framework. The validity of the framework as a whole and its relation to other studies using (different) frameworks tends not to be discussed.
In this paper we set out to develop a conceptual framework that is grounded in a definition of local government financial condition. In our framework we distinguish both between the various time horizons relevant to a local government and between current performance and the exposure to events that may impact (positively and negatively) future performance. The resulting framework has been used to classify measurement instruments used by 33 empirical studies. Our results show that the framework is capable of capturing all instruments used, with the exception of seven dummies representing geographical characteristics. Groups of sample studies focus on specific dimensions, driven by the research objective pursued. Most performance dimensions have been developed in the long-term solvency area, indicating that most studies aim at predicting future financial performance, in order to help local government predict and prepare for possible fiscal distress conditions. The use of a conceptual framework may be helpful in improving our understanding of how to measure and assess local government’s financial condition.
Drs. J.P. Kooij is senior researcher at the Court of Audit (Rekenkamer) Metropool Amsterdam.
Prof. dr. T.L.C.M. Groot is professor in Management Accounting at the Vrije Univeriteit Amsterdam.